A model for assessing the financial stability of retail chains based on a digital footprint: integration of Big Data and traditional financial metrics

Abstract

The study proposes a dynamic model for assessing the financial stability (Zr) of retail chains that overcomes the limitations of traditional approaches in the context of digital market transformation. The relevance of the research stems from the rapid growth of online sales in the retail sector (from 5% to 15% over the past three years) and the inadequacy of classical models that fail to account for digital activity. The proposed model integrates conventional financial ratios with digital indicators, making it applicable for monitoring business sustainability, designing KPIs for digital divisions, optimizing product assortment, and supporting investment and credit decision-making.

References

  1. Альтман Э. И. Финансовые стратегии и оценка риска банкротства / М.: Альпина Бизнес Букс, 2005. – 248 с.
  2. Ассоциация компаний интернет-торговли (АКИТ). Аналитический доклад: Онлайн-розница в России – 2024. URL: https://akit.ru/research
  3. Баранов К. В. Цифровая устойчивость бизнеса: индикаторы, методы оценки, практика внедрения / СПб.: Питер, 2020.
  4. Беликов И.А., Давыдова Л.В. Методика оценки банкротства торговых предприятий // Финансы и кредит. 2001. № 15. С. 25–30.
  5. Водопьянова Д. В. Отечественная практика по оценке банкротства организации // Научно-методический электронный журнал «Концепт». 2016. № 1. С. 46–50. URL: http://e-koncept.ru/2016/16010.htm
  6. Горбачев В. А. Финансовая аналитика цифровых платформ: теория и практика / 2023.
  7. Brand Analytics. Ежемесячные отчёты по брендам в соцмедиа / URL: https://br-analytics.ru
  8. Data Insight. Исследование e-commerce в сегменте FMCG URL: https://datainsight.ru
  9. DeLong E.R. et al. Comparing the Areas under Two or More Correlated Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves // Biometrics. 1988. Vol. 44(3). P. 837–845.
  10. Granger C.W.J. Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods // Econometrica. 1969. Vol. 37. P. 424–438.
  11. McKinsey & Company. The future of retail post-COVID: Digitalization and operational resilience URL: https://www.mckinsey.com
  12. Ozon и Wildberries – официальные каталоги и витрины [Электронный ресурс]. 2024–2025 URL: https://ozon.ru, https://wildberries.ru
  13. Schinasi G. J. Defining Financial Stability / Washington, 2019.
  14. SimilarWeb. Digital Traffic Analytics for Russian Retail URL: https://www.similarweb.com
  15. Zhang W. Digital Metrics in Retail Risk Assessment: A Comparative Framework // Journal of Financial Innovation. 2021. Vol. 9, Issue 3. P. 102–120.